Grain export earnings expected to jump 16%

Farm export earnings will probably rise 16% to $31.8bn in 2008/09 and then another 2% to $32.5bn in 2009/10 thanks to an upturn in the production of wheat, barley canola, lupins, peas, rice, raw cotton and sugar, ABARE said.

"A forecast increase in winter crop production combined with relatively favourable world prices for many agricultural products is expected to support farm export earnings in the short term," ABARE executive director Phillip Glyde said.

Export earnings for energy and minerals are poised to rise by 36% to $160bn in 2008/09 before falling to $124bn in 2009/10 due to lower bulk contract prices for coal and iron ore.

Energy exports will likely fall by 34% to about $50bn in 2009/10.

Earnings from metals and other minerals will probably fall by 12% to about $75bn in 2009/10.

Australian production of metals and other metals is expected to drop by 1.4% due to lower production of zinc, nickel and lead.

In 2009/10 total production is forecast to rise by 2.7% because of increased production of iron ore and metallurgical coal.

Production of energy commodities will likely rise by 1.2% in 2008/09 reflecting increased production of thermal coal, natural gas and oil.

Production will contract 0.5% the following year due to lower thermal coal and crude oil production.