Swine flu’s killer blow

This much is clear as the death count mounts from the outbreak of swine flu and mankind is humbled once again by an ancient and untamed enemy.

Fatalities have been confined to Mexico, but many other countries around the world have reported either confirmed or suspected cases of the virus.

Shipping cannot stand aloof from the progress of the virus, which could affect trade and limit freedom of movement.

While there is no way of knowing how serious the economic impact of swine flu will become, it is worth recalling an earlier pandemic alert severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars, in 2003.

It spread from Chinas Guangdong province rapidly to infect individuals in 37 countries. It was relatively short-lived and with the worst effects mainly regional, yet the Asian Development Bank estimated that the overall loss in demand and business revenue was some US$60bn.

In shipping, crew shore leave was banned in affected areas and the World Health Organisation announced new procedures for the management of probable Sars cases on international shipping, including the possibility of holding an affected vessel and crew for up to 10 days in port.

Shipyards suffered, with vessels being diverted to safer regions for repairs. One Singapore yard claimed it had lost as many as 20 jobs worth around S$20m (US$13.4m) in the first half of 2003 due to the impact of the virus.

Cruise shipping was inevitably hit badly. Star Cruises repositioned two vessels operating out of Hong Kong and Singapore to Australia after cancelling Asian itineraries, but still sustained a loss in the first half of 2003.

Two cruise companies that went out of business Festival and Royal Olympic cited the Sars crisis as a contributory factor.

Given Mexicos importance to cruise shipping in Caribbean itineraries, as well as on the countrys west coast, the pain is being felt here first.

But cargo shipping too will feel the impact of swine flu if the need to contain the outbreak grows.